Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates Solid Expansion in October


From the Philly Fed: OctoberManufacturingSurvey

ManufacturinggrowthintheregioncontinuedinOctober, according to firms responding to this month’s Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broadest indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment were positive, signifying growth. The survey’s indicators of future activity suggest continued optimism about growth over the next six months.

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, edgeddownfrom 22.3 inSeptemberto 19.8 thismonth. The index has now been positive for five consecutive months. … Thedemandformanufacturedgoods, as measuredbythecurrent new ordersindex, increased 6 points, to 27.5, itshighestreadingsinceMarch 2011.

Labor market indicators showed improvement this month. Thecurrentemployment index increased 5 points, to 15.4, its highest reading since May 2011.
emphasis added

This was above the consensus forecast of a reading of 15.0 for October.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through October. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through September.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys has been positive for five consecutive months. This was a solid report and suggests further solid expansion in the ISM report for October.

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