TheProbabilityOf A StockMarketCrashIsSoaring http://feedly.com/k/K8LLWl While some individual stocks (cough TWTR cough) may have reached irrational bubble territory, the US equity market is undergoing a seemingly ‘rational’ bubble. However, as John Hussman illustrates in the following chart, the probabilityof a stockmarketcrashisgrowingextremelyrapidly. Based on the thispaper, Hussman simplifies the rational bubble as: Youonlyholdonelongone more periodifexpectedreturnis positive – requiringEXTRAGAIN x (1-p) + CRASHLOSS x (p) to be greaterthan … Seguir leyendo The Probability Of A Stock Market Crash Is Soaring

EuropeanMonetaryUnionMisnamed; I ProposeGEU (GermanEconomicUnion) orUSG (UnitedStatesofGermany) http://feedly.com/k/JgY6qS The irony and hypocrisy in chancellor Angela Merkel’s first parliamentary speech of her third term would be astounding were it not par for the "Everything for Germany" course of action. Please consider Chancellor Urges Reformsto Preserve Euro In her first parliamentary speech since her re-election for a third term on Tuesday, she warned that Europe needed to take … Seguir leyendo European Monetary Union Misnamed; I Propose GEU (German Economic Union) or USG (United States of Germany)

Turkey’spoliticalstabilityinquestion; yieldbreaches 10% http://feedly.com/k/1g4DDAR Turkey’s government is in disarray. It is quite common for governments, particularly in countries with an authoritarian leadership (and Turkey’s leadership has been acting in that fashion), to blame whatever the mess the country is facing on corruption (seeexample). And the more the Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan loses grip on power, the more he will blame "corruption" for his predicament. With … Seguir leyendo Turkey’s political stability in question; yield breaches 10%

ItalianFamilies’ Spent 11% LessOnChristmasGiftsIn 2013 http://feedly.com/k/1fJR0pd According to pundits, 2012 was the worst year for the Eurozone’s peripheral economies, only worse than the just as tumultuous 2011, while 2013 was – if only listens to Europe’s propaganda masters – a year of recovery thanks to the ECB’s "whatever it takes" mentality. Which fails to explain why families in recession-battered Italy spent 11.4% lessongiftsthisChristmasthanlastyearandoneinfivehouseholdsdidwithoutpresentscompletely, according to … Seguir leyendo Italian Families’ Spent 11% Less On Christmas Gifts In 2013

BofAMLAsks "IsThisTheEndOfBitcoin?" http://feedly.com/k/1hCXWWC Following David Woo’sinitial $1300 fair–valuepricetargetforBitcoin, the BofAML strategist has had to suffer through some significant changes; not the least of which is China’s increasingly strict Bitcoin regulation. The shifts, he notes, raisekeyquestionsaboutthefutureofBitcoin as he asks "is this the end of Bitcoin?" ViaBofAML’s David Woo, Although this has yet to be officially confirmed, there are reports that the People’sBankof China (PBOC) has bannedthird-partyBitcoinpaymentcompaniesfrommakingrenminbidepositstoBitcoinexchanges. … Seguir leyendo BofAML Asks “Is This The End Of Bitcoin?”