Crushing The “US Is Decoupling” Meme (In One Simple Chart)

CrushingThe "USIsDecoupling" Meme (InOne Simple Chart)

// ZeroHedge

With US equity markets hitting fresh all-time highs (as much of the rest of the world is 10-15% off its highs and falling), thememethat rules the "commonknowledge" talking-headworldis "USdecoupling" oryetanotherversionof ‘cleanestdirtyshirt’. Well, as much as we hate to steal the jam from many an asset-gatherer’s donut, the BIS provides us with a simple quick efficient guide to show that no, not all…as the BIS findstheUSbusinesscycleisentirelyco-dependentonAsian (andEmergingMarket) economiccycles. Perhapsitissnowingeverywhereintheworld?

The co-movement of the US economy and Asia (DM and EM) has increased dramatically since the financial crisis…

h/t @GeorgeMagnus1

As the BIS explains

Standard measures of real economic co-movement between Asia-Pacific economies and those elsewhere had been observed to follow a downward trend, leading some commentators to suggest that the region was decoupling.

However, this process reversed in response to the International Financial Crisis, and co-movement increased to historically high levels for some economies. We examine co-movement patterns and show that these are very sensitive to changes in macroeconomic volatility over time.

Controlling for this, however, co-movement is closely linked to underlying trade and financial integration. If international links continue to strengthen in future, co-movement will strengthen in tandem.

Decoupling is more a fiction than a fact or a forecast

Full PDF defaming the decoupling myth here.

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