Notes: ThisCoreLogicHousePriceIndexreportisforOctober. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by only 0.2 percent in October 2013 compared to September 2013. Year over year, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 12.5 percent in October 2013 compared to October 2012. This change represents the 20th consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices nationally.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.4 percent month over month in October 2013 compared to September 2013. On a year-over-year basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased by 11 percent in October 2013 compared to October 2012. Distressed sales include short sales and real-estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that November 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to remain at the same level month over month as October 2013, with a projected increase of 12.2 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2012.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.
The index was up 0.2% in October, and is up 12.5% over the last year. This index is not seasonally adjusted, and the month-to-month changes will be smaller for next several months.
The index is off 17.5% from the peak – and is up 22.9% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012.
The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for twenty consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).
This is the largest year-over-year increase since 2006.
I expect the year-over-year price increases to slow in the coming months.
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