A pesar de las abrumadoras evidencias, la Fed sigue con el discurso de que las subidas de las mateeias primas no son importantes y que realmente no llegarán al consumidor. Un problema “transitorio”. Sigo con mi idea de que cuando la Fed reaccione las cosas habrán llegado demasiado lejos y la economía colapsará de forma aún más catastrófica que en 2008.
“First we had FRBNY Dove Bill Dudley talking up the Goldman party line that QE3 may, just may, be necessary (recall Goldman initially asked for $2 trillion in QE), and now the dove from the west coast makes news as San Fran Fed (also known as the Captain Obvious academy) president Janet Yellen basically says that rising commodity prices don’t warrant policy shift. And by policy shift she means a change to the current easing regime. Some other dovish statements: “it would be difficult to get a sustained increase in inflation as long as growth in nominal wages remains low” which is wrong – how many billions do American consumers “save” by not paying their mortgages; “structural explanations cannot account for bulk of rise in unemployment during the recessions” … so why do we need economic “explanations”? “structural explanations cannot account for bulk of rise in unemployment during the recessions” – yup: Captain Obvious class 101; “long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored despite jump in short term expectations” – anchored to what – the Rudy von Havenstein inflation projection wall chart? “decline in jobless rate reflects in part drop in labor force participation” – advance topics In Captain Obviousness; “real consumer spending slowed around turn of the year after brisk gains in autumn, consumer sentiment weaker in March” – but CNBC just spent all of last week telling us how strong the consumer was in March; and most importantly: “accommodative monetary policy stance still appropriate because unemployment too high, underlying inflation too low” and “inflation effects from higher commodity prices likely to be transitory but must watch inflation expectations” uhh, what happened to well-anchored? To rephrase: the QE lunacy will continue until morale (and hyperinflation) improves.”